Why Bulls Are Betting on a “Stimulus Rally”

President Trump is feeling better, and if his condition continues to improve, he could be released from Walter Reed Medical Center this afternoon.

“The discharge decision will be made later today between the president and his medical team,” said White House chief of staff Mark Meadows in a statement this morning.

That’s good news for bulls who are still long on stocks.

But what’s even better news is a flood of renewed stimulus optimism. With both sides of the aisle feeling pressure to get a deal done, some analysts believe it could just be a matter of time before a relief package arrives.

“I think this is more stimulus. I really do,” exclaimed “Mad Money” host Jim Cramer.

“This is hope on talks between Secretary Mnuchin and Speaker Pelosi that may be going on now.”

A less-than-stellar September jobs report, coupled with Trump’s hospitalization, may finally have Democrats and Republicans willing to settle their differences on a stimulus bill.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi acknowledged the shift in tone as well, saying on Friday that “we continue to work on the text to move quickly to facilitate an agreement.” What’s more, she advised airlines to delay their furloughs due to an “imminent” disbursement of industry-wide relief.

Trump also instructed Congress to “work together and get it done” via tweet from Walter Reed.

In other words, forces are conspiring in Washington to push a stimulus bill through – something that should prove to be a boon for equities moving forward. Direct economic relief will bring stability to an uncertain market.

And according to analysts monitoring the current election odds, it might not even matter who wins come November.

“Markets seem [to] have lowered the chance of prolonged uncertainty post-November 3,” explained Ajay Rajadhyaksha, head of macro research at Barclays, in a note.

“Given that Vice President Biden has been ahead in most polls, this suggests that markets are assigning a bit more probability to his win and a bit less to a close and contested outcome.”

Recent polls have Biden commanding 51% of the popular vote. Trump, meanwhile, has 41%. That’s up from his 39% tally following the first debate, but still not enough to close the gap completely.

Statisticians are taking issue with polls conducted by major media outlets, however, claiming that an oversampling of Democrats has things artificially skewed in Biden’s favor. Adjustments have been made to the results to account for the discrepancy, but even with weighting, the data still appears off the mark.

In less popular polls that don’t oversample Democrats, Trump is leading.

And while the litany of high-profile, Biden-slanted polls could prove demoralizing for Trump voters, it also could create a scenario in which Democrats stay home. Back in 2016, Hillary Clinton was expected to enjoy a landslide victory as a result of bogus polling.

Instead, Trump rewrote the map on election night, flipping many traditionally blue states red.

Will it happen a second time? It certainly could. If Trump emerges from the hospital and another round of stimulus hits, happy days could be here again.

Especially for POTUS and his supporters.

And in the end, that’ll likely push equities higher, too, in what could be a snapback rally to new all-time highs.


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